Rate of Return Odds

See how different portfolios and holding periods affect the odds of reaching a target rate of return.

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Select a time period (in years)

Moderate Portfolio
Pie Chart

Distribution of Annual Rates of Return
1 Year Holding Periods

Negative
Returns

0% to
4.99%

5% to
7.99%

8% to
9.99%

10% to
11.99%

12% to
14.99%

15% to
19.99%

20% &
over

The graph above shows the odds of reaching your target rate of return for the 840 five year holding periods between 1947 and 2021 for a Moderate portfolio. For example, 39,7% of all returns fell in the 5% to 7.99% range, 18,8% of all returns fell in the 8% to 9.99% range and 12,1% of all returns fell in the 10% to 11.99% range.

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Assumptions
Best, worst and average returns are annual compound rates of return for various holding periods and portfolio combinations from 1947 to 2021 inclusive. Portfolios were rebalanced to their original allocation every twelve months. Stocks are represented by the S&P/TSX Total Return Index, bonds by the Canada 10 Year Total Return Government Bond Index and cash by the Canada Total Returns TBill Index.

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